The latest sign John Hollinger needs to tweak his ratings

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Okay, just tell me how this makes sense: John Hollinger's power rankings, based on statistics, rate the Boston Celtics as the NBA's best team. The Celtics are also, according to Hollinger, projected to finish with the NBA's best record.

So why, oh why, do the Celtics have only the seventh-best chance to win the title? According to Hollinger's projections, the C's have a 6.3% chance of hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of the season, behind -- be patient, it's a pretty long list -- L.A. (8.9%), Dallas (7.4%), Orlando (7.3%), Cleveland (6.8%), Atlanta (6.8%), and Denver (6.4%).

Another sign Hollinger might want to change whatever formula it is that comes up with these projections? The New York Knicks (yes, THOSE Knicks) have a 3.2% chance of winning the title. So the Celtics are only twice as likely as the Knicks to win the championship... riiiggghhhtttt.

Methinks it's time for Hollinger to go back to the lab and switch his formula. Anytime you can publish one ranking that states a team is the best team in the NBA, and simultaneously say that same team only has the seventh-best chance at a title, there is something wrong.

As a suggestion, John, I'd recommend you throw out any formula that says the Knicks have any chance at all to win a championship.

(h/t ESPNBoston)

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Anonymous said...

The Celtics will face a weaker regular season schedule in the Atlantic and the East - by far - than any of the Western contenders. Which means that Denver, LA and Dallas may each all finish with 3-9 wins fewer than the Celtics, but will have faced much stiffer competition regularly.

The Celtics only true competition in the East are the Cavs, Hawks and Magic. Out West, veritable giant-killers like the Spurs, Thunder, Rockets and Hornets are each in danger of possibly missing the playoffs.

As for the Eastern teams, I'm worried about the Hawks - any C's fan (or Magic or Cavs fan) should be. They look nasty this year. The Magic went to the Finals last year, and by many assessments, they are better in '09-'10 (though I disagree) so I can understand them earning a higher percentage for the championship. The Cavs have the best player in the NBA, so maybe Hollinger's considering that.

Maybe Hollinger thinks that injuries or age will affect the C's in the post-season, or maybe he just recognizes that 'Sheed will be the Ubuntu assassin (just wait), but he obviously has his reasons.

As for the assessment of the Knicks - I gotta agree with you. At season's start, if somebody told me they'd lay $300 for the Knicks to win the championship against my $600 for the Celtics, I'd take raise it to $30000 vs. $60000 without hesitation.

December 15, 2009 at 1:14 AM

Andy Hicks said...

You're nuts if you think the Celtics are anywhere other than first in the league. They've got the best record and best point differential. Period.

December 15, 2009 at 1:33 AM