2009 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings: The point guards

Now that the NBA finals are over, and my least favorite team has won, it’s time to jump fully into NBA Draft mode. The NBA Draft is one of the best times of the year for any NBA fan. The excitement of the opportunity for your team to get better brings a lot of fun to the table. This year, I thought the draft wasn’t going to be as interesting to me, because the Celtics only have the 58th pick. Now they are rumored to be looking to trade up in the draft, apparently willing to part ways with Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen to get a look at one of this year’s budding stars. Why the hell they would do that, I don’t really know, with Ray Allen being their only true threat from outside and Rondo blossoming before our eyes into one of the top point guards in the league. Nonetheless, it’s gotten me excited for the draft, and it’s now time to rank each position.

To begin Celtics Town’s look at the draft, we are going to start with the floor general, the point guard. This year’s point guard crop is a very intriguing one, with some accomplished college players as well as some European studs. We include a couple guys who might not be classified as point guards on everybody’s list, but they’ve either played point guard their whole lives (Tyreke Evans) or would likely play point guard in the NBA (Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry). Enjoy Celtics Town’s first annual draft position rankings:

10. Patty Mills, St. Mary’s (Last year’s stats: 18.4 points, 3.9 assists)

Patty Mills is a guy who has yet to scratch the surface of his real potential. Despite a productive two-year college career, Mills could still improve in leaps and bounds. He has the speed to be a very disruptive point guard in the NBA, but often failed to showcase it in college, preferring to settle for contested jumpshots (according to Draft Express, he took the most contested threes of any college player last year). When Mills plays well, he can be electric: Over last summer, he played for the Australian National Team in the Olympics, leading his team in scoring, averaging over fourteen points per game on the way to the Olympic quarterfinals. He also played an unbelievable game against Stephen Curry, stealing the spotlight and demonstrating his ability to blow by his defender and find the open man. Mills is a short point guard, but makes up for it with speed and good shooting ability. Last year, his shooting percentage was low, but the reason for it wasn’t his shooting, it was his shot selection. Look for Mills to become a solid backup point guard in the NBA, a guy who can use his speed to get by defenders and his jumpshot to keep them honest. Because of his size, I don’t think he will ever be a starter, but I think he’ll become a dependable backup, for sure.

9. Darren Collison, UCLA (Last year’s stats: 14.4 points, 4.7 assists)

Darren Collison has always been a guy who I felt was overrated in draft circles. After his sophomore year, everybody talked about Collison as a potential lottery pick, and sat back and scratched my head, wondering why. He is a short, thin player who doesn’t seem to do much on the court, and I was wondering just what about him made him a lottery pick Now that he’s fallen down in the draft order, though, I love Collison. Whereas I don’t feel he has the playmaking abilities to create enough offense to be a starting point guard, he is a steady contributor who will provide solid play offensively and elite ball pressure defensively. He will be a pesky defender from day one, and his stable offense should help him have a long NBA career.

8. Ty Lawson, North Carolina (Last year’s stats: 16.6 points, 6.6 assists)

Before last year, I felt Lawson was an overrated, mistake-prone point guard who couldn’t hit a jumpshot. Boy, was I wrong. Lawson proved me, and all his detractors, wrong during an incredible junior season that saw him completely take the reigns of college basketball’s top team. Tyler Hansbrough got a lot of the credit for North Carolina’s championship, but Ty Lawson was the guy who made them go. Because he played for North Carolina, Lawson gets compared to Raymond Felton, but I see a lot more Jameer Nelson in him. Like Nelson, Lawson is a strong, physical guard with a lot of strength, and he developed a jumpshot during his junior season. This past year, he became a far better player than he ever had been, continuing to push the tempo to breakneck pace but still playing controlled basketball. It was beautiful to watch Lawson play this season, although, being a Duke fan, it wasn’t fun to see Greg Paulus, Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith try to guard him. I look for Lawson to be a starter in the NBA, and he could have a very good rookie year depending on where he gets drafted.

7. Jrue Holiday, UCLA (Last year’s stats: 8.5 points, 3.7 assists)

I really don’t know why Jrue Holiday is climbing draft boards around the country. He did nothing, repeat: NOTHING, in his time at UCLA. Averaging 8.5 points and 3.7 assists per game in his lone college season, I am still very skeptical of Holiday’s skills. Yeah, his stats might be low because he had to share the backcourt with Darren Collison, but he’s going to be playing with much better point guards in the NBA. Holiday clearly has a lot of holes in his game, which he will need to fill to become an NBA contributor. Anyways, after bashing him for a little while, now I’ll tell you the other side of the story. I realize why NBA scouts are drooling over the guy. He is an unselfish point guard offensively, with the tools to be a lock-down defender and a pure distributor. He has an NBA-ready body even though he just turned 19. He has as much upside as just about anybody on this list. Despite all his physical tools, I am not sure an NBA team would be making the right choice drafting Holiday. They would likely have to wait at least a couple years to see him develop into the player he can be.

6. Eric Maynor, VCU (Last year’s stats: 22.4 points, 6.2 assists)

We’ve gotten to my favorite point guard in the draft. Whenever I watch Maynor, I’m struck most of all by the patience in his game. He takes his time, seems to play slow, and then somehow he ends up blowing by his defender into the lane. In that way, he reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy. I’m not saying that he’s going to be as good as Brandon Roy, or even that they play similarly, but the poise and deliberate nature of their games is very comparable. Maynor is a very good shooter, and was a tremendous scorer in college, but I think he can make the transition to more of a distributor in the NBA. Maynor changes speeds so well that it’s very difficult to stay in front of him. Maynor is already a crafty offensive player, great off the pick-and-roll, and as productive in college as any player on this list. I look for his skills to translate well to the NBA, and for him to be a solid player from day one, wherever he ends up.

5. Brandon Jennings, Lottomatica Roma (Last year’s stats:7.6 points, 1.6 assists, 19.6 minutes)

Despite not receiving too much playing time while playing for Lottomatica Roma in Italy, Brandon Jennings made it known that he can produce against great competition. Jennings is a lightning-quick player with the handle and speed to blow by defenders and the athleticism to finish in traffic. Probably the most explosive point guard in this year’s draft, Jennings possesses terrific potential as a playmaker in the NBA. That said, he’s not there yet. His struggles overseas have pointed out the flaws of his game. He has poor shot selection, is not yet a good shooter, and has some issues with being out of control. Playing at the highest level in Europe should definitely help Jennings in the long run. It should force him to mature as a player and give him solid experience heading into the NBA. Whereas most prospects have been playing against guys their own age, Jennings has played against grown men, and lived to tell about it. He should be a star in the league down the road, but I’m not sure how much he’ll contribute immediately.

4. Stephen Curry, Davidson (Last year’s stats: 28.6 points, 5.6 assists)

The most prolific scorer in recent NCAA history, Stephen Curry is being projected right now as a mid-lottery pick. I wish I could tell NBA scouts not to get awed by his tremendous college stats, and instead focus on Curry as a player. He has many flaws in his game that I think will hurt him at the next level. First off, Curry is not a true point guard. While he showed a decent ability to play the point during his junior season at Davidson, he is very turnover prone. Do you really trust him dribbling the ball upcourt against super-quick defenders like Rajon Rondo? I don’t. Curry is also short, super-thin, and doesn’t matchup well defensively with any position. I don’t see him possessing the strength or height to guard shooting guards, nor lateral quickness to guard point guards. Nonetheless, his production over the past three years was remarkable. He is an amazing shooter, and his great touch and quick release should translate well to the NBA. Still, I doubt he will ever be a standout performer in the NBA. I am sure his shooting ability will find him playing time and give him a long career in the NBA, but I don’t see star potential.

3. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse (Last year’s stats: 17.4 points, 6.7 assists)

Probably the most confident point guard in this year’s draft, Jonny Flynn should be even better in the NBA than he was in college. Because of his outstanding athleticism and world-class quickness, Flynn should be able to penetrate at will even in the NBA. Of all the players I saw play college basketball last year, no other player impressed me more with the ability to break down a defense. Once inside the lane, Flynn can still do a lot of things with the basketball. He is a good passer and, especially for a point guard, an outstanding finisher. With the NBA’s handcheck rules that have made it easier than ever for point guards to get to the hole, Flynn should thrive at the next level. He is a good scorer with the heart of a lion. I’ll never forget Flynn’s performance against UConn in the epic six overtime game; Everybody else was too tired to do anything, but Flynn kept relentlessly attacking the basket, unwilling to let his team fall. Flynn should be a contributor right away, and I see him as being the most NBA-ready of all the point guards in this draft.

2. Tyreke Evans, Memphis (Last year’s stats: 17.1 points, 3.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds)

Tyreke Evans, in my eyes, is the most interesting point guard prospect in the draft. Though still raw, he is blessed with an incredible combination of height, strength, athleticism, and basketball skill. Evans is an absolute physical specimen with a 6’11” wingspan to go with 6’5” height and a strong frame. On top of his physical attributes, Evans possesses the ability to create his own shot at any time. Right now, his jumper is uglier than Tyrone Hill, but Evans’ ability to create his own shot should lead to his becoming a terrific NBA scorer as soon as he fixes that jumper. He’s not just a scorer, though – Evans excels at getting into the lane and creating scoring opportunities for others, too. He tends to be a bit too ball-dominant, but should improve on that with good coaching. I see Evans blossoming into an absolute stud down the road, and should produce in transition right away.

1. Ricky Rubio, DKV Joventut (Last year’s stats: 10.0 points, 6.1 assists, 2.2 steals)

Ricky Rubio burst onto the basketball scene in 2006 at the U-16 World Championships, where he accumulated three triple-doubles, one quadruple-double, and put up 51 points, 24 rebounds, 12 assists and 7 steals to beat Russia in the finals in a double-overtime thriller. Rubio, is the most can’t-miss prospect in this year’s point guard class. A basketball prodigy since his teenage years, Rubio is also, far and away, the top Europen prospect in the draft. He is a long, skilled player with tremendous basketball IQ. He has terrific court vision, with the ability to make the simple pass as well as the home run pass. Unlike most young players, Rubio is already a terrific defensive player, winning the 2009 Spanish ACB League Defensive Player of the Year, averaging 2.2 steals per game in only 23 minutes. Despite his youth, the young Spaniard is already very accomplished overseas, where he has played professionally since the age of fifteen. Already, Rubio has won the coveted Mr. Europa Award (in 2008), given to the best European basketball player in the world, regardless of where they are playing, and was also named the ACB League’s top point guard for 2008. Last year, at only 18 years old, Rubio played on the silver medal-winning Spanish National Team, starting over the second half of the tournament over NBA veteran Jose Calderon. With his pedigree, potential, and basketball IQ, Rubio should have a long, storied career in the NBA, and should be drafted in the top four choices should his $8 million buyout not affect his stock.

2010 NBA Mock Draft

	1. Derrick Favors 6’10” 220 lbs., Georgia Tech Derrick Favors is an absolute athletic freak in the mold of Dwight Howard. Look for him to be a monster in the NBA, using his world-class athleticism to dominate. Favors is about as can’t-miss as a prospect can be, and whatever NBA team gets him will have a future superstar.
	2. John Wall PG 6'3"; 175 lbs., Kentucky Wall will instantly be the most athletic guard in college basketball. Besides being a superb athlete with long arms and explosive quickness and leaping ability, Wall possesses a tremendous basketball IQ and terrific court vision. Similar to Derrick Rose, Wall is an outstanding athlete but polished player. He should be a superstar in the NBA.
	3. Greg Monroe PF/C 6’11” 245 lbs., Georgetown Monroe had an up-and-down freshman season at Georgetown, but even during the downs his talent shone through. The big center is a great talent, with a face-up game abnormal for a player his size. Monroe is also a fantastic passer and has nice post footwork, but so far lacks the aggressiveness he will need to become an NBA star. Still, he has all the tools and is still developing.
	4. Lance Stephenson SG/SF 6’5” 215 lbs., Undecided The controversial Stephenson has been looked upon as by some people as a malcontent, trouble-making player who has too big of an ego. Still, Stephenson’s talent is undeniable. A physical, powerful and explosive guard/forward, Stephenson can overpower his opponents or go by them. He is a terrific penetrator, underrated passer and a wonderful scorer. If he ever gets his head on straight, Stephenson could make an unbelievable pro.
	5. Al-Farouq Aminu SF/PF 6’8” 215 lbs., Wake Forest The versatile Aminu is a very interesting prospect. A Shawn Marion-type athlete, Al-Farouq’s basketball skills have not yet caught up to his athleticism, but he still manages to impact a game in many ways. Aminu’s boundless energy and athleticism have allowed him to get by without a developed skill set, but he will need to improve his ball-handling and shooting in the NBA. Defensively, Aminu projects to be a very versatile defender capable of guarding a wide variety of players.
	6. Willie Warren SG 6’4” 210 lbs., Oklahoma Stuck in the shadow of Blake Griffin for his freshman campaign, Willie Warren didn’t get to show his entire game. Look for him to become Oklahoma’s go-to-guy during his sophomore season, using his advanced scoring skills to lead the Sooners near the top of the Big 12.
	7. Ed Davis PF 6’9” 215 lbs., UNC Davis is slated to be a high draft pick based on his potential rather than his production. A long, wiry 6’9”, Davis has the long arms, agile feet and leaping ability to be a great player, but he will need to fill out and work on his offensive repertoire.
	8. Donatas Motiejunas PF/C 215 lbs., Zalgiris Kaunas A rather typical European big man, Donatas Motiejunas makes a living outside rather than inside. Even at 7’0” tall, Motiejunas possesses great shooting range that extends to the NBA three-point arc. The downfall to Motiejunas is that he is considered somewhat soft and may not have the “intestinal fortitude” to compete on the blocks in the NBA. Still, he is a very skilled seven-footer.
	9. Cole Aldrich C 6’11” 250 lbs., Kansas After playing behind the talented frontcourt of Sasha Kaun, Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson during his freshman year at Kansas, Cole Aldrich truly came into his own during his sophomore season. A good jump-shooter despite truly hideous form, Aldrich has a pretty developed offensive game. He really shines on the glass, where he is an excellent rebounder, and defensively, with his ability to block shots and play physical post defense.
	10. Devin Ebanks SF/PF 6’8” 215 lbs., West Virginia Devin Ebanks reminds me of a young Trevor Ariza – a guy with great athleticism and an aptitude for defense. With his aggressiveness and physical attributes, Ebanks should develop into a solid offensive player, but for now he remains a work in progress at that end of the floor.
	11. Evan Turner SG/SF 6’7” 205 lbs., Ohio St. A long, rangy 6’7” wingman, Evan Turner had an extremely productive sophomore season at Ohio St., averaging 17.3 points and 4.0 assists per game. A solid play-maker, Turner has the ability to create his own shot or create a shot for his teammates. He is a solid shooter, but his strength is creating off the dribble. Turner also has the potential to become an excellent defender at the NBA level.
	12. Avery Bradley PG/SG 6’3” 185 lbs., Texas Athletically, Bradley reminds me a lot of current Lakers guard Shannon Brown. They are both strong, explosive point guards with the ability to create contact and finish at the rim. At this stage of his career, Bradley is more developed than Brown was, as he really has a great offensive arsenal. Additionally, Bradley is already a very good defender, capable of shutting down his opposing player.
	13. Craig Brackins PF/C 6’10” 235 lbs., Iowa St. A very advanced offensive player, Brackins has the ability to play both inside and out. His skill level is remarkable, and he is very adept at facing up his defender from the perimeter. Still, Brackins is only an average athlete by NBA standards and is not an NBA-caliber defender. He will need to improve his quickness to be a force in the NBA, but should be a valuable pick-and-pop guy anyways.
	14. Patrick Patterson PF 6’8” 225 lbs., Kentucky Patterson put up great stats for Kentucky, and is a very active rebounder and efficient scorer, but he is still undersized. Still, with the recent success of many undersized power forwards in the NBA (including Paul Millsap and Glen Davis), Patterson can look forward to being a mid-first round pick in the 2010 NBA draft. Patterson is a strong, tough guy with above-average athleticism and excellent tenacity. He should be a work-horse in the NBA.
	15. DeMarcus Cousins C 6’10” 275 lbs., Kentucky DeMarcus Cousins is an absolute physical force. I was able to catch a high school game of his and was astounded by his sheer size. Only a high school senior, Cousins already had a build similar to Kendrick Perkins’. To go along with his terrific physique, Cousins has a developing all-around game, including a nice midrange jumper and good passing vision. Cousins is not yet a finished product and tends to stray too far away from the basket, but he could develop into a special player.
	16. John Henson PF 6’10” 200 lbs., UNC The latest in a long line of long, thin, bouncy power forwards to play at UNC, John Henson may prove to be the best out of all the recent power forwards to wear Tar Heel blue. A great athlete, Henson has shown flashes of perimeter potential to go with his terrific height and length. Though his weak frame prohibits him from being too tough down low, Henson still plays with an edge and doesn’t back down from any competition. If Henson can put on weight, look for him to skyrocket up the rankings.
	17. Tyshawn Taylor PG 6’3” 180 lbs., Kansas Although he didn’t have a great freshman year at Kansas, at least statistically, Tyshawn Taylor proved himself as a player and put his name out their for NBA scouts to see with his play for USA’s Under-19 World Championship team. Taylor is solid at most aspects of the game, including ball-handling, shooting, and passing, but doesn’t excel in any one area offensively. Still, he will have time to develop given his considerable physical talents. Defensively, Taylor is blessed with the strength, length and quickness to become a disruptive force.
	18. Jan Vesely C 6’11” 245 lbs., KK Partizan Belgrade Far different than the average European big man, Vesely has an offensive game that has yet to catch up to his above-average athleticism. Born in 1990, Vesely still has plenty of development left but has already made his mark in the Euroleague, starting for his team KK Partizan Belgrade.
	19. Solomon Alabi C 7’1” 230 lbs., Florida St. Alabi is a raw, rail-thin player with poor offensive skills who had little production during his freshman season at Florida St. So why is he being considered such a high prospect? Alabi has an incredible combination of athleticism, height and length. For a guy his size, Alabi really has outstanding athletic talent. He has a long ways to go, but if Alabi ever put on some weight and/or developed his skills he would really be a player to keep an eye on.
	20. Larry Sanders PF/C 6’9” 205 lbs., VCU Larry Sanders is a guy who has improved drastically over the past couple of years. Once strictly a dunker on the offensive side, Sanders now has a few post moves and the makings of a midrange jumper. Still, the defensive side of the ball is where Sanders will make his impact. With an absurd 7’7” wingspan and good leaping ability, Sanders should be a great shot-blocker for a long time to come.
	21. Jerome Jordan C 7’0” 230 lbs., Tulsa A big project along the lines of JaVale McGee, Jerome Jordan has made his impact on the college game by being bigger and more athletic than his opponents. In the NBA, he will have to develop his skills quite a bit, but a guy with Jordan’s size and athleticism rarely comes along. Look for Jordan to get drafted but not be an impact player for at least the first year or two of his career.
	22. Xavier Henry SG 6’6” 220 lbs., Kansas Despite being rated the #1 high school prospect by a number of publications, Henry doesn’t quite have the potential of a few other guys from his high school class. Henry is a solid, but not spectacular athlete with a strong frame and great shooting ability. He should become a very solid NBA player, but I’m not sure he has enough athleticism to ever become a star.
	23. Trevor Booker PF 6’7” 225 lbs., Clemson Another undersized power forward, Booker still manages to bring a lot to the table. He has an incredible work ethic and has terrific intensity and a never-ending motor. Booker also has a very good face-up game and utilizes his quickness very well, both on the perimeter and in the post. Though he will be severely undersized in the NBA, look for Booker to etch out a role for himself with his hard-nosed play.
	24. Stanley Robinson SF/PF 6’9” 215 lbs., UConn Stanley Robinson is an absolutely freakish athlete who seemed to finally put his basketball game together towards the end of last year. With extraordinary length, pogo-stick leaping ability and quickness, Robinson has all the physical tools to become a stud on both ends of the floor. His skills have not yet caught up to his athleticism, but if they ever do Robinson could be one hell of an NBA player.
	25. Gani Lawal PF 6’8” 235 lbs., Georgia Tech The physical, athletic Lawal thrives on opportunistic points off offensive rebounds or finishing layups and dunks around the rim. Still without much of an offensive game, Lawal nonetheless manages to produce at a very high rate due to his aggressive play. Lawal could become a good energy and hustle guy in the NBA.
	26. James Anderson SG/SF 6’6” 200 lbs., Oklahoma St. Thriving this past year in Travis Ford’s up-tempo offense, James Anderson displayed his sweet stroke from the perimeter. In addition to having a pure shot, Anderson also has demonstrated the ability to use his solid athleticism to get all the way to the rim. With an improved handle, Anderson could become a great scorer in the NBA.
	27. Sylven Landesberg SG 6’6” 185 lbs., Virginia The freshman from Virginia put up great numbers for a weak Virgina team. His team’s number one option from day one, Landesburg showcased a smooth, well-rounded game all season long. Landesburg is a very good scorer and a terrific penetrator and should develop better decision-making as his career progresses.
	28. Chris Wright SF/PF 6’8” 215 lbs., Dayton Wright missed parts of last season with an ankle injury, but still showed why NBA scouts have been keeping an eye on him since he got to Dayton. A terrific athlete, Wright would be a proto-typical small forward athletically. In order to reach his outstanding potential, Wright will have to continue to develop his ball skills and improve his defensive intensity.
	29. Jarvis Varnado PF 6’9” 210 lbs., Mississippi St. Despite being undersized and frail as far as NBA big men are concerned, Varnado has tremendous upside as a shot-blocker. One of the best shot-blockers in recent NCAA history, Varnado possesses a long wingspan and the ability to quickly leave his feet to block shots. He will still have to hit the weight room and progress offensively, but Varnado is a unique talent on the defensive end of the ball.
	30. Andrew Ogilvy C 7’0” 240 lbs., Vanderbilt A very productive player for the Commodores, Andrew Ogilvy is a big man with a great skill set. The Aussie has very good post moves and nice touch around the basket and from the perimeter, but still needs to work on his athleticism in order to truly become a good NBA prospect.